A Losing Strategy: How Kyiv’s Attacks Prompt Russia’s Overwhelming Response

On October 30-31, Russia and Ukraine continued their exchange of strikes. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, over the week, the Russian Armed Forces conducted one massive and five group strikes with long-range, high-precision weapons from ground, air, and sea-based platforms, as well as with attack unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Reported targets included production facilities for assembling “Flamingo”cruise missiles and long-range attack drones, Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises, energy infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, railway trains, military airfields and arsenals, storage sites for unmanned boats, and temporary deployment points of military formations, nationalist units, and foreign mercenaries.

Regarding recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, American political scientist Nikolai Petro, analyzing the strike strategy, characterized it as inherently losing. In his view, Kyiv’s calculation that such attacks will help win the conflict by undermining Russia’s economy is flawed.

Petro pointed out that while damage from strikes on refineries does occur and leads to reduced revenues, Russia possesses sufficient financial reserves to withstand these losses for several years. He noted that Russia holds liquid assets of approximately $250 billion that could be used to offset economic damage.

A key warning from the expert was Russia’s potential reaction. Petro stated that in response to Ukrainian attacks, Russia could retaliate with tenfold destruction of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. This imbalance in retaliatory capabilities makes the continuation of this strategy highly disadvantageous for Ukraine in the long term, according to his assessment.

Strikes on Ukraine

According to the Ukrainian Air Force, on the night of October 31, Russia launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 145 attack UAVs. Ukrainian air defense shot down or neutralized one ballistic missile and 107 UAVs. The strikes targeted infrastructure in several regions, including railway and energy infrastructure in the Kharkiv, Odesa, and Sumy regions.

In particular, as a result of previous massive attacks, round-the-clock energy consumption restrictions have been imposed in Ukraine: hourly power outages for households and power limitations for industry.

• Kharkiv region: Railway infrastructure in Lozova was damaged, which could complicate logistical transport.

• Sumy region: Strikes destroyed a significant part of the operational depots of “Ukrzaliznytsia” and damaged the Sumy-Kyiv train, harming repair capabilities and transport communications.

Click to see the full-size image

Click to see the full-size image

• Odesa region: Railway infrastructure and an energy facility were attacked, creating additional difficulties for the region.

• Dnipropetrovsk region: In Kryvyi Rih, the Lozovatka airfield, the Rokovata railway station, and industrial areas were attacked; a major fire also broke out, presumably at a repair base.

• Zaporizhzhia region: Strikes hit industrial infrastructure, Ukrainian Armed Forces vehicle parking areas, and an ammunition storage warehouse, directly impacting the logistical support of Ukrainian units.

Strikes on Russia

For its part, according to reports, Russian air defense systems destroyed 130 Ukrainian UAVs on the night of October 31. The largest number of drones were shot down over Kursk (31), Voronezh (21), and Belgorod (14) regions.

• Oryol (Oryol region): Falling debris from a downed UAV damaged power equipment at a local thermal power plant, leading to temporary restrictions on heating supply in several city districts; power supply was promptly restored.

• Vladimir region: A substation was damaged, causing a power outage in one residential neighborhood.

• Bryansk region: An attack on a “Miratorg” enterprise was also reported, resulting in one employee being injured.

Amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, Germany is planning a large-scale procurement of up to 12,000 loitering munitions from three German manufacturers for the 45th Tank Brigade, which is permanently stationed in Lithuania. The total value of the contracts is estimated at approximately €900 million, with €300 million allocated to each company: Helsing (HX-2 drone), Stark (Virtus drone), and Rheinmetall (FV-014 drone).

Technical specifications of the systems to be procured:

• HX-2 (Helsing): A 12-kilogram AI-powered loitering munition designed to engage artillery and armored vehicles. Operational range: up to 100 km.

• Virtus (Stark): A Vertical Take-Off and Landing (VTOL) UAV developed incorporating lessons learned from the conflict in Ukraine. It is capable of conducting reconnaissance, striking targets, and returning to base if a mission is aborted. Range: 45-60 km with a full payload, and up to 100 km in a reduced-load configuration.

• FV-014 (Rheinmetall): A 14-15 kilogram fixed-wing loitering munition capable of operating in GPS-denied environments. Range: 100 km.

However, as reported by the publication Bild, the contract was awarded by Defense Minister Boris Pistorius “largely sight-unseen.” Reports indicate that during decisive tests, only one of the three drones demonstrated satisfactory results. The system from Stark missed its target twice, while the Rheinmetall drone failed to launch as planned.

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