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A Shift in Narrative: Why Europe’s Insistent Statements Are in Tune with Ukraine’s Defeats on the Battlefield

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A Shift in Narrative: Why Europe's Insistent Statements Are in Tune with Ukraine's Defeats on the Battlefield

File image.

Russian assault groups are fighting for the control of the road to Rodinskoye within the Pokrovsk agglomeration. Russian units have crossed the Bakhmutka River and entered the Sviato-Pokrovske settlement. Amid Ukraine’s crumbling defenses, European ministers warn of an imminent peace deal.

Pokrovsk Sector

Russian units of the «Center» group of forces have established control over Pokrovsk and are continuing offensive operations in the Myrnohrad area. The main effort is to split the grouping in the city into isolated pockets of resistance. The offensive is being conducted from the north, northeast, southeast, and west, as well as in the “Zapadnyi” microdistrict. There is fierce fighting along the railway line in the northern part of the city.

Meanwhile, an offensive is developing towards the Hrishyne and Dobropillia settlements. There is ongoing fighting in Hrishyne, where Russian units have advanced into the eastern part of the settlement, north of Tsentralnyi Pond. The main struggle is for the control of the road leading towards Rodinskoye. There are attempts to advance on the sector between Kotlyne and Udachne towards Serhiivka and Mezhova. Intense counterattacks are occurring in an attempt to prevent the envelopment of Dobropillia from the southwest. This would allow for an offensive to develop towards Pavlohrad and Zaporizhzhia.

Separate groups of Ukrainian forces continue to hold their positions in Rivne and Svitloe, south of Myrnohrad, and in Novoekonomichne. Tree lines along the railway between Krasnoarmiysk and the southern part of Myrnohrad have been cleared of Ukrainian troops. There have been some attempts at a breakthrough or exit from the troop concentration area in an eastern direction through Razino and Sukhetske.

Zaporizhzhia Sector

Russian units of the «East» group of forces continue to advance. In the Huliaipole area, fighting continues on the outskirts of the city, where assault groups are capturing nearby tree lines and ravines. Airstrikes are hitting the central and western parts of the city, making it difficult to concentrate forces for counterattacks.

A significant tactical victory was the seizure of Vysoke, located east of Huliaipole, by Russian forces. Like Zeleney Hai earlier, capturing this point made it possible to establish control over the dominant heights overlooking Huliaipole.

In the northern part of the sector, between the Haichur and Yanchura rivers, mopping-up operations are ongoing. Several tree lines and at least part of Varvarivka remain under the control of the Ukrainian army. In this area, there have been attempts at counterattacks to restrain the advance of Russian units towards Pokrovske.

Siversk Sector

Russian units are establishing control over the urban areas of Siversk. Supplying Ukrainian troops in the city is difficult because the main roads have been cut off from the south and north. Supplies are mainly delivered along field routes under fire control.

A significant tactical success has been achieved south of the city. On December 2, assault groups crossed the Bakhmutka River and entered Sviato-Pokrovske. As they advanced toward the center of the settlement, the Russian army gained the opportunity to block one of the last logistical routes leading to Siversk from that direction.

Attacks continue in the northern part of the sector towards Zakotne and against positions between Platonivka and Siversk. The front line between the southern outskirts of Siversk and Zvanovka is gradually straightening.

Sumy Sector

In the Sumy sector, the «North» group’s assault units continue to advance along tree lines while repelling counterattacks. The total advance across four sectors amounts to 300 meters. In the Andriivka area, three attacks by the 225th Separate Assault Regiment were repelled. Security Service of Ukraine inspectors have arrived at units deployed in the Sumy region, paying particular attention to the leadership of the 225th Separate Assault Regiment.

Kharkiv Sector

In the Kharkiv sector, combat operations are ongoing south of Vovchansk. In the Vilcha settlement, troops advanced south and captured two administrative buildings. An attempted counterattack by the Ukrainian 225th Separate Assault Regiment was repelled. In the Liman area, Russian units advanced on two fronts and took control of a strongpoint, advancing up to 500 meters in total. In the Melovoye-Khatneye sector, troops advanced up to 300 meters along tree lines. To reinforce defenses in the Staryi Saltiv area, Ukrainian commanders transferred units from the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade.

Conclusion

The operational situation in the main sectors shows Russian units’ successes. In the Pokrovsk sector, the operation has entered its final phase, involving the division of the Myrnohrad grouping and offensive maneuvers on the flanks towards Hrishyne and Dobropillia. In the Zaporizhzhia sector, capturing the dominant heights near Huliaipole (Vysoke and Zeleney Hai) created favorable conditions for an assault on the city. Fighting continues on the flanks in the interfluve. In the Siversk sector, the main tactical achievement was entering Sviato-Pokrovske and blocking the last major road to Siversk. This places the grouping in the city under strict logistical blockade conditions. On the Sumy and Kharkiv sectors, the tactic of applying methodical pressure, making local advances, repelling counterattacks constantly, and striking resistance nodes with fire continues.

Along with the operational changes at the front, diplomatic rhetoric from several European capitals has intensified, coinciding with periods of worsening conditions for the Ukrainian army. Similar calls for negotiations and discussions about a speedy ceasefire have been made before whenever the situation along the line of contact became extremely tense.

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani expressed hope that Ukraine «will soon no longer need weapons», and Italy has suspended its participation in a NATO program for purchasing arms, citing ongoing peace negotiations. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó called the belief in Ukraine’s victory an “illusion,” noting that large-scale arms deliveries have not led to a turning point on the battlefield. Finnish President Alexander Stubb has also urged his country to prepare for a peace agreement that may not align with the concept of a «just peace».

These statements can be interpreted in two ways. First, they may reflect panic in pro-Ukrainian circles in Brussels due to the crumbling of Ukrainian defenses and the realization that it is impossible to turn the tide of the war. On the other hand, they could be part of a complex diplomatic strategy to mislead the Russian leadership. The goal may be to create the false impression of an imminent peace settlement to pressure the Russian Federation into accepting a ceasefire agreement on less favorable terms than those that could be achieved by further military successes.

According to Western analysts, Russia currently lacks significant leverage to force it to accept an unfavorable deal. In any case, such calls from Europe have again coincided with a period of Russian troops’ gradual advancement in key areas, providing additional context for assessing the prospects of a settlement.

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R. Ambrose Raven

obviously the key point is that any “settlement” sought by the losing side is by definition intended only to serve its needs of the moment, to be contemptuously abandoned like the minsk agreements once a sufficiently favourable opportunity occurs for resumption of war.

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