Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, mediated by the U.S., ended in disarray in the UAE. Several statements were made about improving negotiating positions, but no meaningful agreements were reached. This indicates that the parties were unable to overcome their differences. It can therefore be assumed that Moscow and Kyiv will try to strengthen their negotiating positions through successes on the front lines.
Russia has taken the first step by concentrating its efforts in northern Ukraine. Taking advantage of the fact that most Ukrainian reserves are tied up in the Kupyansk area, Russian troops have launched an offensive in previously quiet border areas. Over the past two weeks, at least seven border breaches have been reported in different areas. Bridgeheads are expanding in the Komarovka area, east of Myropil, Maryino, Pokrovka, Popovka, Grabovskoye, and east of Volchansk. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army is preparing for a major offensive in the south.
The Ukrainian command selected the southern part of the Dnipropetrovsk region as the primary target. Specifically, the Ternovate-Andreevka section. Seven assault regiments are concentrated in this area. The 125th and 128th Heavy Mechanized Brigades, as well as the 92nd Airborne Assault Brigade, are concentrated here as well. These units are the most highly trained in the entire Ukrainian army. Assault regiments are essentially the main “firefighting teams” on the front line. They are tasked with stabilizing the most critical sections of the front, even at the cost of heavy personnel and equipment losses.
The Vostok group of troops is advancing on the Russian side in this area. This group includes units and formations from the 5th, 29th, 35th, and 36th combined arms armies. Additionally, there are reports of units from the 45th Special Purpose Airborne Brigade operating in the area. These units will likely face the brunt of the Ukrainian forces’ attack. Meanwhile, changes have also been noted in other areas of the front.
On February 10, units of the Russian 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Division took control of the large Zaliznychne settlement in the Zaporizhzhia region, located in the suburbs of Gulyaipole. The most likely direction for further offensive actions is toward Gulyaipolskoye and Yegorivka. Advancing behind the Ukrainian front line will significantly reduce casualties. This area is relatively unoccupied because the second line of defense lies further north. This will provide access to the city of Orekhov from the east.
West of Orekhov, Russian 58th Army units gained a foothold on the southern outskirts of Novoandreevka. The ring around the main stronghold of the Ukrainian army in the Zaporizhzhia sector continues to tighten.
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