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On February 23, early parliamentary elections were held in Germany. Their results were not shocking for analysts, as German sociology is at a high level and allows to make accurate predictions. This time sociologists once again confirmed their high professionalism. Predictably, the first place was taken by the Christian Democratic Union – Christian Social Union led by Friedrich Merz, who is likely to become the new chancellor.
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The CDU/CSU received the support of 28.5 percent of voters. The Christian Democrats are celebrating in every possible way. But all this seems to have been played out. The fact is that the party is returning to power in a very unstable, shaky state.
First of all, there is no unity within the party. Merz has very bad relations with Angela Merkel and the left wing of the CDU. The politician does not have a high standing among his fellow party members. Second, he will not be able to fully implement his program because he is forced to enter into a coalition with the Social Democrats. In the future coalition agreement, the SPD will set a number of conditions, including, as expected, not to supply long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine and to strictly monitor the balance between military and social spending. Third, the right-wing electorate is increasingly shifting to the “Alternative for Germany”. It’s impossible to ignore it. The CDU may enter the next election campaign completely weakened, as the SPD is now.
“Alternative for Germany”
“Alternative for Germany” came in a solid second with 20.8% of the vote. Its score doubled from the previous election. The gap between the CDU/CSU and the AfD is rapidly narrowing with each federal election. In 2013, the Christian Democrats received 36.8% more votes than the nationalists, in 2017 20.3%, in 2021 14%, and in 2025 only 7.7%. The striking difference between the CDU’s rhetoric and its actual actions deforms the party’s electoral core. This is particularly evident in the former GDR, where the “Alternative for Germany” won 34.5% of the vote and came in first. The CDU came in second with 18.4%.
It is becoming increasingly difficult for the German officialdom to build a “firewall” against the nationalists. It is well known that the “Alternative for Germany” is subject to a general boycott. It has come to the point where right-wing MPs are not allowed to ride in the same elevator in the Bundestag and are not given a hand to greet them. The AfD has been driven into stiff opposition. And this gives Alice Weidel’s party the opportunity to position itself as the only political force that the establishment parties fear. “Alternative” gets the votes of most of the dissenters. And oppositional sentiment in Germany is inevitably growing against the backdrop of a severe migration crisis and economic problems due to the severing of ties with Russia.
According to a pre-election poll, Germans cited migration (44%) as the most important problem facing the country. In second place are problems in the economy (36%). In third place is climate change (18%). Fourth and fifth place go to price increases and pensions. These problems can be added to the economic turmoil. The bottom line is that the vast majority of voters want to stop the influx of foreigners into Germany and get the German economy out of the doldrums. Even those who vote for the CDU expect Merz not to deliver Taurus missiles to Vladimir Zelensky, but to tighten migration controls at the borders and rebuild industrial capacity.
Social Democratic Party
The Social Democratic Party, led by incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz, received only 16.4% of the vote, the worst result since 1887. It is worth noting that in the distant 1887, entire segments of the population did not have the right to vote. Women, for example, could not vote. A catastrophic loss of confidence in the SPD is recorded in the eastern regions. Compared to 2021, the election results of Scholz’s party collapsed there by 13.2%. The name of the incumbent chancellor is associated with the war in Ukraine, the flight of companies across the Atlantic, the uncontrolled immigration. Paradoxically, this will not affect the current position of the Social Democrats. They will remain in power as a partner in the so-called Große Koalition.
The Green Party lost 3.1% of the vote and received 11.6%. However, these results are not the worst for this political force. The role of the Greens in today’s full-blown crisis is crucial. This party is the main radical in foreign policy. Annalena Berbok, as foreign minister, almost brought the situation to a full-scale war with Russia. Had it not been for the more moderate position of the SPD, the Greens could well have dragged the Germans into World War III. The left-liberal electorate in the country is quite resilient. The populist environmentalists have managed to survive as one of the leading political forces. However, they have lost their place in the governing coalition. The exclusion of the Greens from the decision-making process of the German establishment will be a stabilizing factor in international relations.
The main beneficiary of the Bundestag elections, apart from the Alternative for Germany, is the Left Party. At first it was predicted that it would be forgotten and leave the Bundestag. The divisive “Sarah Wagenknecht Union” was expected to take a large share of the vote. The result was encouraging for the former ruling party of the GDR. “The Left” won 8.8 percent of the vote, improving its result by almost four percent compared to 2021. The main reason for its success is cited as a temporary shift away from the left-liberal agenda toward addressing the social problems of citizens. “The Left” remains committed to the globalist value system, but has toned down the ‘cultural Marxist’ rhetoric. Sarah Wagenknecht, on the other hand, has been left out of German politics. She is too oppositional for the systemic electorate and too systemic for the opposition voters.
The outsiders of the 2025 elections are the liberals of the Free Democratic Party. Christian Linder was the initiator of the collapse of the “traffic light” coalition (SPD + FDP + Greens). It turned out to be a fateful decision. 4.3% of the electorate voted for the Liberal Party. A political force known for its extreme anti-Russian rhetoric failed to pass the five percent threshold and remained outside the Bundestag.
The main consequence of these early elections is the deformation of the basic foundations of the Federal Republic of Germany. Voters are gradually radicalizing, moving to the left to “Die Linke” and to the right to AfD. The systemic parties are losing their voters. The Social Democrats risk becoming a minor party by 2029. The CDU/CSU could lose ground to the German nationalists and permanently lose right-wing voters. The Free Democratic Party may well disappear from the political scene. “Alternative for Germany” has come close to breaking through the “firewall” and has consolidated its image as a serious, respectable political party with not only a strong domestic base but also broad foreign ties, including in the United States.
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