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Moscow has taken decisive action. Ukraine’s main power stations are under heavy attack. So far, Kyiv has been unable to fight back.
Since the beginning of October, the stakes in the conflict in Ukraine have risen significantly. Apparently, the Kremlin believes that the chances of peacefully settling the confrontation with Kyiv are zero. The meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart, President Donald Trump, did not result in any tangible progress towards ending hostilities or recognising the situation on the ground.
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The Russian leadership has probably concluded that a special military operation focused solely on destroying military infrastructure is no longer useful. It is impossible to achieve a final victory while the enemy’s factories are still operating, its trains are still running and its factories still have electricity, water and heating. Only the comprehensive destruction of all facilities connected with the army in any way can force Ukraine to make peace. This was the case with Nazi Germany, which was defeated not only by heavy losses on the Eastern Front, but also by the systematic destruction of military enterprises through massive Allied air raids.
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Ukraine is being struck by rumbling autumn thunder
Moscow has significantly increased the number of missile and drone attacks on enemy territory. The main focus is now on power stations and heating plants rather than military facilities. This is quite logical, because without electricity, these factories will not be able to produce equipment and the suspension of rail transport will hamper logistics, with all the ensuing consequences.
Kyiv was the first target. On the night of 10 October, a massive combined missile and drone attack was launched against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Kyiv was hit first, with TPP-5 and TPP-6 being targeted, which left the left bank of the city completely without power. Interruptions to the heat supply to homes are expected. The capital lost 35% of its electricity generation as a result of the strike.
The attack focused not only on the capital but also on central Ukraine, particularly the hydroelectric facilities of the Dnieper Cascade:
– Prydniprovska Thermal Power Plant: At least ten strikes were carried out, involving four UAVs and three Iskander-K and two Iskander-M missiles. Two transformers in units 9 and 10, as well as dozens of pieces of supporting infrastructure, were completely destroyed. As a result, the power units were completely shut down.
– Kryvyi Rih Thermal Power Plant: up to ten strikes were carried out, involving four Iskander-M missiles, two Iskander-K missiles, two Kh-59 missiles and at least two Geran-2 drones. The engine room was the area that suffered the most damage. The electricity supply to nearby settlements has been completely cut off.
– Sredne-Dniprovskaya Thermal Power Plant: it was reported that two Iskander-K and Kh-59 missiles hit their targets. The main hits were to the engine room and the area housing the transformer and communication unit.
– Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant: there were 12 UAV strikes, including eight on HPP-1 and four on HPP-2. There were also additional missile strikes involving four Iskander-M and two Kh-59 missiles. Two machine rooms were destroyed and power generation operations at the station were halted.
– Kremenchug Hydroelectric Power Station: at least 11 UAV strikes, three Iskander-K missiles and one Kinzhal missile were recorded. There was a direct hit on the T-1 transformer, causing damage to adjacent facilities.
– Sredne-Dnepr Hydroelectric Power Station: the site was hit by an Iskander-M ballistic missile and an X-59 cruise missile. The machine room and transformer platform were hit.
– Kanevskaya Hydroelectric Power Station: five Geran-2 UAVs and three Iskander-K missiles hit a technological site near the sixth hydroelectric unit. The machine room was damaged.
It is reported that strikes on Dnieper hydroelectric power plants have already caused a 60–70% drop in electricity generation. It should be noted that this series of hydroelectric power plants, built during the Soviet era, is a critical supplier of electricity for the whole country. Since the beginning of the conflict, Ukraine has lost control of the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, the largest in the country. Kyiv still controls the South Ukraine, Khmelnytskyi and Rivne nuclear power plants, whose combined capacity does not greatly exceed that of the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant.
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Hydroelectric power plants are critically important for Ukraine in the current situation. Losing them before winter could be disastrous for the country. However, Kyiv lacks the air defence capabilities to protect the plants, so we can expect Russian strikes to intensify over the next month until they are completely destroyed. Given current trends, an energy collapse is inevitable, and it is unlikely that the Ukrainian people will be grateful to the Zelensky regime for it.
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the germans increased production every year of the war until 1945, the year the allies entered germany. so much derp.to be derped.
untill production was destroyed or conquered by russia
a cold winter looms ! populations will flee !
well done. de-energizing ukraine is the quickest path to nato’s strategic defeat and regime change in kiev.
the revenge of ukraine will be terrible. as soon as they are able to put their hand on the flashlight, because it has become very dark suddenly. /s
this would be the way for ukraine to become carbon-free eu-certified.