Illustrative image. (Fire Point)
The German government is planning a major expansion of its military capabilities, seeking nearly €12 billion to develop a new arsenal of long-range weapons aimed at bolstering deterrence against Russia, Politico reported on August 21.
The proposed initiative, described in internal defense ministry documents as a top priority for both Germany and NATO, aims to provide the Bundeswehr with the capacity to strike targets hundreds or even thousands of kilometers behind front lines, including command centers, airfields, missile launchers and logistics hubs.
The strategy seeks to allow German forces to strike deep into an adversary’s rear territory, maintaining what officials describe in the documents as a “conventional response capability” that remains “below the nuclear threshold.”
According to the report, the plan is structured into four distinct phases. The first phase focuses on the immediate procurement of cost-effective, mass-producible cruise missiles, with initial systems expected as early as next year. Potential options reportedly under review include the “Anthem” missile from American-Israeli firm Covenant Industries, alongside Ukrainian-developed “Bars” and “Flamingo” systems.
This is to be followed in the second phase by a transitional acquisition of United States-made Tomahawk cruise missiles and ground-based Typhon launchers, anticipated by the end of the decade.
The final two phases involve the development of advanced, high-tech systems—including a new cruise missile and a hypersonic glide vehicle—to be built in partnership with the United Kingdom. These systems are targeted for the mid-2030s and are intended to reach ranges exceeding 2,000 kilometers.
The funding for the program, estimated at “almost €12 billion,” has not yet been formally approved, though government officials have reportedly submitted the cost estimates as part of the broader national budget planning process.
German planners have expressed particular concern over the Russian deployment of Iskander missiles in the Kaliningrad region and “Oreshnik” medium-range missiles in Belarus, both of which are capable of striking major European targets on short notice.
Politico notes that the push for indigenous long-range capabilities gained renewed urgency following recent shifts in U.S. military strategy, including the Pentagon’s decision to scale back planned deployments of long-range fire units to German soil.
While Berlin’s public response to those U.S. decisions remained muted, the German defense establishment has accelerated efforts to fill the resulting capability gap independently, according to the report.
The German plan, clearly directed against Russia, appears overly optimistic in its assumption that strikes against Russian territory during a border conflict would not trigger a nuclear response from Moscow.
While the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has remained under the nuclear threshold, this should not be taken by NATO states as a reliable indicator of how a direct conflict between the alliance and Russia might evolve.
Moscow characterizes its actions in Ukraine as a “special military operation,” and Kyiv, unlike Berlin, is not a NATO member. Any broader conflict in Europe involving the alliance would likely escalate rapidly above the nuclear threshold, particularly if Russian territory were targeted.
Moscow is unlikely to risk allowing nuclear-armed NATO members to be the first to escalate with such non-traditional weapons.
The new German strategy suggests that European countries continue to miscalculate regarding Russia, potentially drawing the wrong lessons from the war in Ukraine and failing to fully grasp the risks involved in a direct conflict with Moscow.
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