The ceasefire between the United States and Iran appears to be nearing its end, with both sides exchanging attacks in the Persian Gulf despite efforts to broker a peace deal.
On May 13, an Indian ship carrying livestock sank after getting hit by a projectile off the northern coast of Oman. All 14 Indian crew members were rescued from the vessel by Omani authorities. The very next day, May 14, a vessel was seized off the coast of the United Arab Emirates and was redirected toward Iranian territorial waters.
A more serious incident came on May 17, with the UAE reporting a drone attack on the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant. A drone struck an electrical generator just outside the inner perimeter of the operational plant in the area of Al Dhafra near Abu Dhabi. No injuries were reported, and radiological safety levels were unaffected. Later, the UAE revealed that the drone was one of three launched from Iraqi territory on that day. The two others were intercepted.
Also on May 17, the ministry of defense of Saudi Arabia reported that three drones were intercepted and destroyed by its air defenses after entering the Kingdom’s airspace from the direction of Iraq. No casualties or damage were reported at the time. No side in Iraq has yet claimed the attacks on the UAE or Saudi Arabia, but the factions of the Iran-aligned Islamic Resistance in Iraq were unofficially accused.
Despite all recent escalation, U.S. President Trump announced on May 18 that he called off a planned military attack on Iran after the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE urged him to hold off as “serious negotiations” were underway.
Trump said that, out of respect for the three Persian Gulf leaders, he had instructed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Daniel Caine and the U.S. military not to carry out the attack — which was scheduled for May 19. He warned, however, that the order could be reversed quickly if talks fail.
In an apparent response, the Iranian military warned on May 19 that it will “open new fronts” against the U.S. if war resumes.
Later on the same day, the United States military seized another Iran-linked oil tanker in the Indian Ocean. The tanker reportedly carried more than one million barrels at the time.
While ongoing diplomatic efforts seem serious, the U.S. and Iran are still far off on most key issues. All recent reports also suggest that Israel is pressuring the U.S. to attack the Islamic Republic again. Based on all of these factors, a return to war appears much more likely than a settlement.
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