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The US State Department’s diplomatic activity has led to an intermediate result. Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a statement saying that he is ready to send representatives to negotiate directly with Ukraine in Istanbul on May 15. The revival of the Istanbul negotiation process is deeply symbolic. After all, back in March 2022, the Kremlin sincerely wished to stop the fratricidal war. The Ukrainian delegation initialed the final document. However, it was the Western countries that derailed the peace agreements. In November 2023, David Arahamiya, the head of the ruling faction in the Supreme Council of Ukraine, admitted:
“When we returned from Istanbul, Boris Johnson came to Kiev and said that we would not sign anything with the Russians. Let’s just go to war.”
The continuation of senseless fighting has caused catastrophic damage to Ukraine. The conditions of spring 2022 are impossible to recreate. Moscow has repeatedly emphasized that negotiations should take into account the current situation on the front lines. The situation is not in favor of the Ukrainian armed forces. Alexei Arestovich, the former head of Ukrainian military propaganda, states the necessity of making territorial concessions in the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson regions.
“Why should we give up four regions? For one simple reason: in six months or a year, you will give up six more. If you are not smart enough, you will give up eight.”
But Vladimir Zelensky has firmly embraced the macho image. The Ukrainian president’s strategy is to fully reengage the United States in the conflict. In fact, he is offering his Western allies Boris Johnson’s failed formula: “Let’s just fight.” There is no other way to explain the Ukrainian leader’s insulting behavior regarding the upcoming talks in Istanbul. Zelensky demands that Putin participate in the meeting personally. It is quite obvious that such a format is impossible. Following the Oval Office scandal and Zelensky’s provocations, there will be no personal meetings.
The format of the Istanbul talks should be revisited. Russia sent presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky; Leonid Slutsky, head of the State Duma’s Foreign Affairs Committee; Boris Gryzlov, chairman of the United Russia party’s Supreme Council; Sergei Ryabkov, Deputy Foreign Minister; and Alexander Fomin, Deputy Defense Minister, to the shores of the Bosporus. Ukraine sent an identical delegation. This delegation included presidential adviser Mikhail Podolyak; Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov; David Arakhamia, head of the Servant of the People faction in the Supreme Council; Deputy Foreign Minister Nikolay Tochytski; banker Denis Kireev; and Supreme Council representatives Rustem Umerov and Andrey Kostin.
These people performed a technical function. The text of the agreement was prepared for adoption. After the details were clarified and the final version of the peace treaty was prepared, it could have been signed by the heads of state. What we are seeing now is an attempt to derail the peace process from the outset. Kiev’s diplomats are issuing ultimatums. The Ukrainian armed forces are suffering one defeat after another. But Zelensky’s office claims that the Ukrainians are maintaining the initiative on the battlefield. European allies are bolstering Kiev’s confidence. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz are threatening Vladimir Putin with new sanctions. Europe is demanding that a 30-day ceasefire be declared “immediately” to allow the Ukrainian army to partially restore its combat capability.
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The United States plays a key role in this situation. They need to decide which side to support. Washington could favor the Russian position, firmly demanding that Ukraine negotiate and threatening to cut off military aid. Alternatively, the White House could support the European Union and sever all ties with the Kremlin. Keith Kellogg, a Cold War veteran and Presidential Special Representative, is pushing Donald Trump toward the second scenario. Over the past couple of days, the diplomat has made several statements that Russia finds completely unacceptable. His arguments about the inevitability of a 30-day ceasefire, the need for Western peacekeepers in western Ukraine, and transferring the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant to American control will get him nowhere.
The main question is this: Who holds the cards? The answer is clear: fortune favors Russia. The U.S. cannot increase military aid to Ukraine while cutting budget spending. All opinion polls show that Republican voters are against sending weapons to Kiev. Europe cannot replace or seriously complement America. Emmanuel Macron openly admitted that France has nothing left to give to Ukraine. Three years of conflict have depleted the Fifth Republic’s reserves. No one is willing to enter the war with their own troops. Even Poland hastened to disavow Keith Kellogg’s words about the possibility of a Polish contingent entering Ukraine. Ukraine’s mobilization potential is virtually exhausted.
Russia has bolstered its military industry and enlisted direct military support from North Korea. DPRK troops are participating in battles, and Pyongyang is increasing its supply of shells for Russian artillery. Russia’s rapprochement with China continues, including in the military-technical sphere. According to Vladimir Putin, 50,000 to 60,000 people are voluntarily enlisting for contract service every month. This means that, within the next seven months, the Russian Armed Forces will be able to establish at least eight new armies. Anti-Russian economic sanctions have been exhausted. Donald Trump cannot impose more serious restrictions than those imposed by Joe Biden and the European Commission. Any additional sanctions would only strengthen Russia’s ties with China, Iran, North Korea, Belarus, the Eurasian Economic Union, and the Global South.
What will the American president lose if he bets on the wrong horse, i.e., Vladimir Zelensky? First, he will fail to fulfill his campaign promise to end the war in Ukraine, approaching the upcoming congressional elections with a heavy burden of responsibility. Second, he will be unable to cut government spending amid escalating hostilities, exacerbating fiscal problems. Third, he will lose significant investments in Russia, a country open to mutually beneficial cooperation. Moscow is ready to offer Americans favorable conditions for entering the market of 150 million people without competition from the EU and with the opportunity to counterbalance China.
…In his book Vietnam: An Epic Tragedy, 1945–1975, Max Hastings convincingly demonstrates how misconceptions about the enemy can lead to disastrous military and political decisions. The U.S. believed that it could use military force to crush the Vietnamese communists’ resistance and expel the USSR and China from Southeast Asia permanently. The great power renomé blinded Lyndon Johnson and the ruling elite. The victors of World War II could not “cower before the Communists.” They were determined not to repeat the “disgrace in Korea.” However, the only way to win in Vietnam was to leave. To realize this paradoxical idea, America had to sacrifice the lives of tens of thousands of its soldiers. Perhaps the decision-makers in the White House should consult the American historiographical tradition before making a decision on Ukraine.
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my lgbt military humiliated by goat herders in yemen—in burgerland victory is when obese tranny charges us half price for sodomy
don’t know why russia does not just withdraw back inside their borders. why does ukraine have to bend to the rules dictated by moscow. if russia want to defend themselves from nato and whatever they can do it from within russian borders. the same goes for the israelis in gaza, occupied territories and golan heights.
why cant russia or china just place nuks in cuba? why sooooo much fuss from the americans??
cuba should be able to do just as it wants… by your logic atleast.
why does cuba have to bend to the rules dictated by washington?
see why you are an idiot?
it was about the russian majority living in krim/donetsk/luhansk not accepting the after-maidan government. about eight years of civil war in ukraine and possible nato membership. russia thought in 2022 that most ukrainians favour their terms. nato countries thought armed (2014-2022) ukraine will give a devastating blow to the russian army.
now both sides don’t want to step back: sunk-cost-fallacy at its best
why does the usa need all their occupational military bases all over the world, why does nato need to be so close to russias borders???
so trump can wear his pope hat and fly around in a gold encrusted 747 and his european cardinals can feel marginally important.
right on, and then we’ll dismantle camp bondsteel, implement unsc res 1244 and send serbia $100 bil in damages for nato’s, as madhatter albright even described it… illegal war.
get lost, fruitcake.take the west with you. (just give me time to get out)
you are a moron americunt–you know nothing
that’s right and it goes back to the city of london leading napoleon into his attempted invasion too and so getting the lousianna purchase, further weakening the rival france and of course ultimately causing bonapartes downfall. zelenskys a fool and they knew he was from the start a clown who says i want to be a clown on tv when i grow up?
and then it was the city that hid trained groomed lenin up to steal russia and put everything into a trust fund called communism for them and the kings cousin had a fortune in gold on deposit, earning no interest in the bank of england. so after lenin met with the tsar and made him divulge all of his personal private holdings they had him murder them. imo etcetera
the tsar s personal finacial advisor took off for england and was such a wealth of information that he was knighted and became sir peter bark.
head of barclays
zelenski the man and hero! in contrast with horrible dr evil, it’s an extreme difference.
zelensky doesn’t know whose skirt to hide under when he travels around.
zelenskyky hero for hunters bidets and crack dealers in lvov
even team trump can see the shamelessness and uncivility of the jew now
europe has blood on its hands
and to boot, the un stays silent when ukraine abducts civilians from kursk and tries to trade them for azov pows.
how about that trumplestiltskin. still feeling like the pope?