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Another attempt by Trump to stop the conflict in Ukraine. Russia has agreed to the conditions proposed by the Americans. Zelensky addresses the nation, preparing Ukrainians for ‘difficult decisions’.
Another peace deal attempt
Since 21 November, leading Western media outlets have been reporting on new conditions proposed by the White House for Russia and Ukraine. US President Donald Trump is doing his utmost to maintain his image as a peacemaker. For him, freezing the Ukrainian conflict is an important milestone on the road to the Nobel Peace Prize. A 28-point agreement was presented to Ukraine and Russia, which, according to the White House, could end the conflict.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin lifted the veil of high diplomacy with the following statements:
– We are ready for peace talks, but this requires a substantive discussion of all the details of the proposed plan;
– Moscow has the text of Trump’s settlement plan;
– Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine was discussed even before the meeting in Alaska;
– The US asked the Russian side to show flexibility on the Ukrainian settlement;
– After the talks in Alaska, there was a pause on the US side, which was linked to Ukraine’s refusal;
– The US is not discussing the peace plan for Ukraine directly with Russia, as Ukraine is against it.
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Russia is acting extremely logically in this situation. The country’s leader has expressed his full agreement with his American counterpart. This suggests the emergence of a potential alliance between Russia and the United States, on one side, and Ukraine and Europe, on the other. Furthermore, according to the Russian president, the text of the planned peace treaty had been discussed prior to the personal meeting in Alaska. This suggests that there are close ties between the two countries in the private sphere.
The 28-point plan presented by Driscoll to Zelensky on Thursday, 20 November states the following: ‘Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.’ However, alongside this, the US presented the Ukrainians with another draft agreement.
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According to another version of the agreement, Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine includes security guarantees modelled on Article 5 of the NATO Charter. This obliges the US and its European allies to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on the entire ‘transatlantic community’, prompting a response from the US and its allies, potentially including the use of military force.
Draft text:
This Framework Agreement sets out the terms of a ceasefire between Ukraine and the Russian Federation. It provides security guarantees based on the principles of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, adapted to the circumstances of this conflict and the interests of the United States and its European allies.
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The United States affirms that a significant, deliberate and sustained armed attack by the Russian Federation across the agreed ceasefire line into Ukrainian territory would be considered an attack threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community. In such a case, the President of the United States, acting in accordance with his constitutional authority and after immediate consultation with Ukraine, NATO and European partners, will determine the necessary measures to restore security. These measures may include the use of armed force, as well as intelligence and logistical support, economic and diplomatic action, and other steps deemed appropriate. A joint assessment mechanism involving NATO and Ukraine will evaluate any alleged violation.
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NATO members, including France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland and Finland, reaffirm that Ukraine’s security is integral to European stability. They commit to acting together with the United States in response to any qualifying violation to ensure a unified and credible deterrent posture
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This Framework Agreement shall enter into force upon signature and shall remain in force for a period of ten years, with the possibility of extension by mutual agreement. Compliance with the agreement will be monitor ed by a joint monitoring commission, chaired by the European partners and including the United States.
Trump has personally confirmed that Ukraine must agree to the 28-point plan by next Thursday, 28 November.
In this situation, Moscow is cooperating with Washington. Russia has agreed to the conditions proposed by the Americans. These steps will help to reduce the tension that has arisen between the two countries over the past five years. By fully agreeing with Trump’s initiative, Vladimir Putin has put Ukraine and the European Union in a very awkward position. Since 2022, Kyiv has stated that it will only accept a return to the 1991 borders. This position has also been supported by European countries.
The beneficiaries of war disagree
According to media reports, the US is currently exerting unprecedented pressure on Ukraine. For example, The Sun has written about this, and Reuters has reported that Washington has threatened to stop supplying weapons and intelligence if Ukraine refuses.
On 21 November, Volodymyr Zelenskyy made an urgent appeal, claiming that the US was forcing Ukraine to accept Trump’s 28 demands.
Zelensky’s statements:
– Ukraine may lose either its dignity or a key partner (the US);
– It is facing either Trump’s difficult 28 points or a harsh winter and further risks.
Zelensky refuses to trust Russia.
He refused to sign the agreement, stating that ‘the people are with me’.
‘We are steel, and even the strongest metal can break at some point.’
Zelensky also said that next week will be the hardest for Ukraine.
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Ukraine’s position was also communicated to the world’s major powers. Kristina Gayovyshyn, Ukraine’s Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations, stated:
‘Ukraine has officially received a draft plan from the American side. ‘We have outlined the fundamental principles that are important to our people. We are willing to work on the provisions of the plan to ensure a just end to the war.’
In this context, allow me to make a few key remarks:
– Firstly, Ukraine is ready for substantive negotiations to end this war, including at leadership level, but our red lines are clear and unchanging;
– There will never be any recognition, formal or otherwise, of Ukrainian territory temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation as Russian territory. Our land is not for sale;
– Ukraine will not accept any restrictions on its right to self-defence, nor on the size or capabilities of its Armed Forces;
– We will not tolerate any encroachment on our sovereignty, including our right to choose our alliances;
– Any genuine peace process must respect the fundamental principle that nothing should be done about Ukraine without Ukraine, or about Europe without Europe.
As the main beneficiaries of the current conflict, European countries immediately voiced their support for Kyiv’s initiatives. On 21 November, Zelensky held telephone conversations with the French president, Emmanuel Macron; the British prime minister, Keir Starmer; and the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz.
Following these conversations, the following information was reported in the media. According to Bild, Germany is leading an alliance to oppose Trump’s peace plan. Merz’s office has already begun developing its own plan to end the war.
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According to BILD, Merz urgently cancelled his scheduled meetings in order to hold telephone conversations with Trump and Zelensky about the ‘peace plan’.
Reports later emerged that representatives of the EU, the US and Ukraine would meet on Sunday, 23 November in Geneva to discuss the peace plan. At this meeting, it is likely that European leaders will try to persuade their American counterparts.
In the Western media, which is controlled by the ‘war party’, an information campaign has also been launched to counter the initiatives of Trump’s team.
The New York Times:
Europe is in turmoil over the US’s plan to end the war in Ukraine. The terms are deemed unacceptable and tantamount to surrender. If Ukraine were to accept them, it would cease to exist. If Europe accepts this, we must prepare for direct war with Russia.’
Politico:
This is scandalous. This proposal will most likely be rejected by everyone. Trump may want to do this, but he does not have the authority to unfreeze assets located in Europe. Whitcoff needs a psychiatrist…
The Spectator:
This deal is exactly what Putin has always demanded: denazification, demilitarisation, and partition. What have we been fighting for? The proposals being discussed in Kyiv are undoubtedly worse for Ukraine than any of the Minsk agreements. They are tougher than the terms in the draft peace agreement discussed in Istanbul in March and April 2022. This is not a proposal that Zelensky can sign.
Bloomberg:
It amounts to Ukraine’s forced capitulation for the benefit of others, a modern-day Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, with one side interested in the territorial division of Ukraine and the other in commercial interests. In short, it is shameful.
No Ukrainian leader should accept this deal, nor should Europe. It is guaranteed to provoke an uprising within the country and pave the way for Russian destabilisation and re-invasion in the future.
The Wall Street Journal:
Ukraine has made a significant change to one of the 28 points in the version of the plan that was published online.
The original version was apparently intended to expose alleged corruption and proposed an audit of all international aid received by Ukraine. However, the wording was changed to state that all parties would receive ‘full amnesty for their actions during the war’.
The revised plan also calls on Kyiv to agree to hold elections within 100 days, which could result in the removal of Zelensky and his administration from power, given their involvement in an ongoing corruption scandal in Ukraine.
EU leaders are preparing their own counterproposal to end the war on terms that are more favourable to Kyiv, and they are trying to persuade Ukraine to support it. They intend to finalise the plan within the next few days, but Kyiv has not yet committed to joining it.
The political struggle has erupted into the public arena. With the backing of its European allies, Ukraine has effectively rejected Washington’s proposals. The ball is now in Donald Trump’s court. Following the categorical rejection of his peace initiatives, the United States may completely cut off its military support.
Analysis of Zelensky’s speech suggests that the Ukrainian president is preparing his people for difficult decisions. Kyiv has publicly stated that it may lose a key partner, namely the US. This could mean that Europe might offer Zelensky some form of compensation for the loss of American support. The main paradox here is that the EU’s military capabilities are nowhere near those of the US.
Clearly, neither Ukraine nor Europe wants to lose the lucrative income generated by war. The Kyiv elite receives a significant amount of military and financial aid from the West. Europeans could raise taxes by citing the Russian threat and aid to fighters for ‘European freedom’. Thus, everyone benefits at the expense of ordinary taxpayers. High-profile, bloody provocations aimed at discrediting Russia and disrupting a future peace agreement are also possible.
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