Qatar Stands To Lose A Lot From New War Between Israel And Iran

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Qatar stands to lose a lot from a new war between Israel and Iran, especially if the latter acted on its threat to blockade the Strait of Hormouz.

The country has already caught fire during the last war, which began with an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program on June 13 with the United States later joining in. On the very last day of the war, June 24, the Islamic Republic attacked Al-Udeid Air Base near Doha.

Although Qatar was reportedly given an early warning by Iran, the attack raised serious questions about the country’s position in a wider future war.

It is not secret that both Israel and Iran have been preparing for a second round, all while Qatar has been facing increasing pressure from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over its relationship with Hamas and its roles in ongoing talks on a settlement for the war in the Gaza Strip.

This pressure manifested on September 9 when Israel sent its fighter jets to bomb the leadership of Hamas in Doha in an unprecedented attack.

Qatar mobilized its international relations and media machine to put pressure on Israel, but ultimately, Netanyahu faced no consequences and even outright refused to rule out ordering another attack against the Gulf state.

Speaking to a large delegation of U.S. officials on September 15, Netanyahu, whose personal aides are accused of taking money from Qatar, accused Doha of “organizing an attack on Israel… [through] the social media of the Western world and the United States.”

He later said to Israeli channel i24News, “There is now an attempt to impose a blockade on Israel by various entities and countries, led by Qatar. First of all, a media blockade funded with enormous sums of money, both from Qatar and from other countries such as China.”

The biggest brun Qatar could take during a wider war between Israel and Iran, will not, however, come from Iranian missiles or Israeli bombs, but rather from any blockade of Hormouz.

A report released by the International Energy Agency on June 17, amid the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, warned a blockade of Hormouz, even for a limited period, would have a “major impact” on global energy markets.

The Strait is the primary route for exports from major OPEC+ producers, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq, and Iran. It carries most of the world’s spare oil production capacity. Any disruption could eliminate the projected market surplus for 2025, which is estimated at 720 kb/d demand growth and 1.8 mb/d supply growth to 104.9 mb/d.

The report noted that Brent crude prices hit a six-month high of $74/bbl in early 2025 due to fears of escalation, particularly following the Israel-Iran war.

It warned that a prolonged blockade could drive prices significantly higher by constricting supply and making spare capacity inaccessible.

While all sides will be affected, Qatar will likely be at the top of the list. Oil and gas exports account for approximately 37% of the country’s total GDP.

Under the Qatar National Vision 2030, the country boosted the non-hydrocarbon sector to about 63% of GDP in the first quarter of 2025. However, oil and gas remain a cornerstone, contributing around 60% of government revenues and over 90% of exports.

In comparison, Iran’s oil and gas sector accounted for approximately 24.7% of the country’s total GDP in the calendar year, which ends in March 2025.

Qatar clearly has no strategy to deal with such a war. Breaking the alliance with the U.S. is not an option at all. At the same time, joining the war against Iran could be catastrophic. Doha’s alliance with Turkey also seems of no value in the context of a wider war.

And while it can be assumed that Israel pressure on Qatar would ease down if a deal was reached on Gaza, this would in fact end Doha’s role as a mediator for the release of the remaining Israeli hostages in the Strip. Thus, Netanyahu will be more free to escalate against the country, possibly even in the framework of a future war with Iran.

Qatar has already gone through so much, including an Arab blockade that went on from 2017 to 2021. Yet, it looks that the mix of foreign relations, media power and energy economics that Doha has relied on to survive regional turmoils in the past is not that much of an assurance after the last Israeli-Iranian war.

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