Russia-Ukraine Strike Exchange: Tanker Ablaze Off Turkey, Dnipro Blackout, Russia Plans ‘Oreshnik’ Strike

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On the night of January 8, Ukrainian air forces recorded 97 drones launched from Russian territory, of which 70 were shot down or suppressed. Russian air defense destroyed 66 Ukrainian drones, with the majority over Crimea, the Azov Sea, and the Black Sea. As a result of these strikes, Ukraine’s energy infrastructure was damaged, including blackouts in key regions, while the Russian side did not report significant destruction.

Simultaneously, it was reported that on January 7, off the coast of Turkey, approximately 50 kilometers from Kastamonu province, a drone attacked the oil tanker Elbus, sailing under the flag of Palau. According to Turkish media, including Ortadoğu Gazetesi and NTV, the strike hit the upper part of the vessel, causing a fire. The crew was unharmed, and the tanker was towed to the port of İnebolu for inspection.

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Open-source data indicates that the tanker, previously named SCF Aldan, was built for the Russian company Sovcomflot and, according to Ukrainian sources, belongs to the so-called “shadow fleet” used to circumvent sanctions. The British publication The Sun, reporting on the incident, notes that a vessel heading to the port of Novorossiysk to load oil was presumably the target of a Ukrainian drone strike. According to the publication, this attack deals another blow to Russia’s positions.

Previously, at the end of 2024, the New York Times wrote that strikes on Russian energy facilities and vessels, allegedly carried out by Ukraine, are prepared with the support of CIA operatives. The publication claimed that the CIA would also be authorized to assist Ukrainian drone strikes on “shadow fleet” vessels in the Black and Mediterranean Seas. These attacks have already led to a sharp increase in insurance rates for ships in the region and are creating additional risks for maritime trade.

Strikes on Ukraine

On January 7 and 8, the main focus of Russian attacks was the Dnipropetrovsk region. As a result of strikes on critical facilities, including the main substation “DDZ-330 Kamianske,” the region faced massive power outages. Authorities in Dnipro declared a national-level state of emergency: the city is completely without power, boiler houses are not functioning, and hospitals and water supply systems have switched to backup power. This is already the second day of blackouts in the region.

The Ministry of Energy confirmed almost complete power outages in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. The day before, on January 7, “Geran” drones struck the energy networks and the industrial zone of “Yuzhmash” in Dnipro, as well as Kryvyi Rih (at least seven waves) and the railway district of Novomoskovsk.

Regarding the strikes on this region, a deeper strategic picture is gradually emerging. Judging by the nature of the damage, the focus of Russian forces has shifted from targeting generation to a deliberate and methodical effort against distribution capacities—key hubs that redistribute electricity.

At the current stage, it is becoming apparent that with relatively modest resources, they are managing to create localized but persistent and large-scale outages. Concentrating strikes on one region disrupts the familiar maneuvering and backup schemes for the operator DTEK, creating a situation where established mechanisms for restoration and bypassing damage start to fall short.

Dnipro, with its complex, multiply redundant power grid, is becoming a kind of testing ground here. If prolonged disruptions can be achieved in such a system, it means the approach is working and could potentially be scaled by Russian forces to other regions.

In the Odesa region, port infrastructure in Chornomorsk was damaged: containers, fuel tanks, and warehouses. According to Bloomberg, intensified attacks on ports led to a 16% drop in Ukrainian grain exports in December. Due to damage to energy networks, the “Zaporizhstal” metallurgical plant was forced to halt production.

The situation is exacerbated by the general state of the energy system. The head of “Ukrenergo,” Vitaliy Zaichenko, acknowledged a “very difficult situation,” noting the loss of part of the generation capacity after previous strikes. According to various estimates, over 70% of thermal power plants are out of service, and most substations lack adequate protection. Power outages in cities last from 12 to 20 hours a day, leading to conflicts between central and local authorities over supply priorities, such as for hospitals.

Approaching frosts, with temperatures expected to drop to -24°C, create additional strain on worn-out networks and increase risks for the population. To ensure train movement in the Dnipropetrovsk region, Ukrzaliznytsia is switching them to backup diesel traction.

Within Ukraine, there is criticism of the strategy that leads to such severe consequences for civilians. Minister of Community and Territorial Development Oleksiy Kuleba, in an interview, indicated that the security bloc (referring to the Security Service of Ukraine) plans “high-profile operations” against sensitive Russian targets, fully aware that “obvious and predictable” retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure will follow.

Kuleba noted that responsibility for the consequences is blurred: security forces plan operations, energy companies are formally responsible for the infrastructure, and the government is forced to operate in a mode of “constant firefighting,” responding to outages that have already occurred. According to him, the political and media effect of special operations comes at the cost of millions of people being left without light, water, and heat, with the blow hitting not the offices making the decisions but ordinary citizens.

Thus, while at sea the geography of attacks is expanding, calling into question the safety of trade routes, on land the resilience of the Ukrainian energy system is facing increasingly severe tests against the backdrop of approaching extreme winter conditions.

The prospects are worsened by expectations of new large-scale strikes. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy today stated the possibility of a new massive Russian strike in the coming night, noting atypical activity at the “Kapustin Yar” test site, from which the “Oreshnik” missile was previously launched, which Ukrainian air defenses, by their own admission, are unable to shoot down.

To these concerns are added reports from Russian sources about plans by the Russian Federation to inflict a massive combined strike in the near future (possibly today). It is presumed that this could see the first combat use of an experimental-combat model of the “Geran-5” UAV, positioned as a ground-launched cruise missile with a claimed range of up to 1000 km, speed of 450–600 km/h, and a 90 kg warhead. The US Embassy in Ukraine also warned about the potential threat of a new large-scale attack in the coming days.

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