File image.
The Russian military continues to develop its offensive towards Seversk in the Donetsk direction as of October 3, all while maintaining momentum in the Kharkiv direction.
The Yug [South] Group of Forces has renewed its advance to the southwest of Seversk, entering Fedorivka after a successful attack that was likely launched from Sakko i Vantsetti, Rozdolivka and Pereizne. Preliminary reports indicate the settlement has been fully secured by Russian troops. This is yet to be confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense, however.
The capture of Fedorivka would facilitate an attack on Kuz’mynivka then Zvanivka. From there, Russian troops would be able to storm the southwestern outskirts of Seversk.
It’s worth noting that Russian troops are already advancing towards the southeastern outskirts of Seversk. They are also present along mine Number 6 to the northeast of the key city, and maneuvering from there to Dronivka, which is directly linked by a railroad to the northwest of the city.
Kiev forces in Seversk are facing increasing pressure from the Yug Group of Forces, and they will likely end up besieged if no major counterattack is conducted.
Moving north in Donetsk, the Yug Group of Forces solidified its defensive lines around Zarichne after repelling multiple Ukrainian counterattacks, especially to the south of the settlement, restoring a measurable area to the west of Tors’ke in the process.
The advance towards Liman from Zarichne is expected to gain momentum within a few weeks, if not days, as Kiev forces will likely allocate more and more resources to Seversk.
Meanwhile in Kharkiv, the main battle remains in Kupyansk, where the Zapad [West] Group of Forces is pushing deeper in the western part of the key city. Clashes are also still ongoing in the old center of the city, where Kiev forces, cornered by blocking detachments, appear to be making a last stand.
Russian drone units are actively targeting supply routes leading to the city, draining Ukrainian troops who are cornered there.
The complete collapse of Kiev forces in Kupyansk seems likely, although Ukraine could pull out troops from other hot areas to launch a counterattack in the city in order to save its face.
Further to the north in Kharkiv, the Sever [North] Group of Forces has reportedly expanded its control on the left bank of the Volchya River in Volchansk and in the forest west of Synelnykove. The advance was facilitated by heavy air and artillery strikes on Ukrainian defenses.
Russian operations in this part of Kharkiv remain a credible threat to Kiev forces, which no longer seem to be capable of launching cross-border attacks into neighboring Belgorod.
Overall, the situation of Kiev forces in Seversk is getting worse by the day. Near Liman the situation is not yet as bad, but will likely deteriorate very fast if Seversk is captured by Russian troops. And in Kharkiv, the chances of Ukraine holding onto Kupyansk are very slim.
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