Late on October 20, the Russian military’s Vostok [East] Group of Forces broke through Ukrainian defenses to the south of Mala Tokmachka in the Zaporozhye direction, and stormed the key settlement in a surprise attack.
The attack is reportedly being led by the 58th Guards Combined Arms Army. It began with a series of artillery and drone strikes on Ukrainian troops, equipment and positions in Mala Tokmachka.
Russian troops then advanced from Robotyne, Nesterianka, and Novopokrovka towards the settlement in large armored formations, including man battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, as well as in smaller, faster units moving on motorcycles.
Kiev forces employed drones and artillery on a large scale in an attempt to repel the attack. While they managed to inflict some losses, they ultimately failed to stop Russian troops who were reportedly equipped with effective electronic warfare means.
As of October 21, a large part of Mala Tokmachka has been captured by Russian troops, including the entire southern part of the settlement and much of its center.
Kiev forces are still fighting in the settlement. However, attempts to push Russian troops remain limited to drone and artillery strikes. A counterattack is yet to be launched.
The capture of Mala Tokmachka could trap Ukrainian troops in Novodanylivka to the west, and put the 58th Guards Combined Arms Army right on the outskirts of Orikhiv to the north. This would be catastrophic for Kiev forces which have been using Orikhiv as a key command and logistics hub since launching their ill-fated spring counterattack of 2023.
Any collapse in Orikhiv could threaten Ukrainian defenses in Huliapole to the east, which are already facing increasing pressure from the ongoing Russian attack along the Yanchur River, and in Prymorske to the west.
The attack was likely designed to take advantage of Ukrainian attempts to reinforce its collapsing defenses along the Yanchur.
The Russian military has been shifting focus from one area to another in all directions within the special operation zone for the last few months, distracting Kiev forces and depleting their resources. Ukraine is yet to adapt. It continues to allocate vast resources to defend areas which are deemed more important for media-related reasons, like the city of Pokrovsk in the direction of Donetsk, even at the expense of more strategically important areas.
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