On June 30, Russia’s Ministry of Defense reported that long-range drones had attacked 25 gas stations and several fuel storage tanks in several Ukrainian cities. According to specialized sources, all of the gas stations along a key highway connecting Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Region were destroyed. This corridor is critical for the Ukrainian military because it provides logistical support to the entire force in the southeastern part of the country. The Ukrainian military will now be forced to divert resources to set up mobile refueling points and defend them, as Russian drones are unlikely to leave such targets unattended for long. If this issue isn’t resolved, the Ukrainian army could face a serious logistical crisis by late summer. The crisis won’t occur all at once, but rather, will gradually build as accumulated reserves are depleted and external resupply fails to keep pace. For now, Ukrainian forces retain some of their combat capability, though major tactical crises could erupt in certain areas along the front in the near term. Given the looming logistical strain, the risk of these tactical crises escalating into operational-level crises is rising sharply.
South of Vovchansk, the Russian command has shifted its main effort eastward, away from the Oskol River. Near Verknyaya Pisarevka, the front has remained stable for an extended period, suggesting that the Ukrainian forces have managed to hold the line there. This makes shifting the main offensive effort to a more promising sector a logical next step. Accordingly, assault units from Russia’s 128th Brigade and 127th Regiment have pushed forward to the village of Zemlyanyi Yar, west of Bilyi Kolodyaz.
As expected, Russian forces have begun systematically dismantling Ukrainian fortifications near Slavyansk. Similar to what happened in Kostiantinovka, the town of Mykolaivka, which is currently held by Ukrainian forces, is now being systematically destroyed. The town’s thermal power plant has been repurposed as a base for drone operators and multiple rocket launcher systems. This leaves Russian forces with little choice but to destroy the surrounding defenses. Combat aviation is playing a central role in this effort, serving as the primary means of eliminating large, fortified defensive nodes.
In Dnipropetrovsk Region, the situation for Ukrainian forces continues to worsen. Russian troops are steadily tightening their grip around the city of Pokrovske. As of June 29, advancing assault units had captured the village of Bohodarivka, a day after capturing the village of Pysantsi. Russian forces are likely to advance next toward Chernenkove, located just north of Pokrovske. If that happens, every road leading into the city will fall under direct fire control, which will make logistics nearly impossible. Without resupply, the city’s fate could be sealed in short order.
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