Strikes On Energy Infrastructure And A Corruption Scandal: Ukraine’s Twin Crisis

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Russia and Ukraine continued to exchange strikes on November 11-12. According to the Russian Ministry of Defence, Russian air defence systems destroyed 22 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles on the night of November 12. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 121 attack UAVs, 90 of which were shot down or suppressed.

Amid the escalation of hostilities, Ukraine’s internal situation was complicated by a corruption scandal in the energy sector. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the need for the dismissal of Minister of Justice Herman Galushchenko and Minister of Energy Svitlana Grinchuk due to their alleged involvement in corrupt schemes linked to Timur Mindich. Zelenskyy also announced the preparation of NSDC sanctions against two individuals under investigation, who, according to media reports, are Mindich himself and his financier, Alexander Zuckerman, both of whom have left the country. The President emphasised that it is unacceptable for corruption schemes to persist amid regular power outages and Russian strikes. This step continues a pattern of distancing from individuals accused of corruption schemes.

However, it raises questions about whether Timur Mindich, as a friend and one of Zelenskyy’s closest associates, could have carried out large-scale corruption schemes without the President’s knowledge. This tactic of publicly distancing himself from allies while paying lip service to anti-corruption efforts could seriously undermine the president’s control over his own power structures. Analysts believe this effectively legitimises further actions by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) against other members of the presidential entourage, including Head of the Presidential Office Yermak and Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Sviridenko, and potentially even against Zelenskyy himself.

Observer Owen Matthews of The Spectator believes the corruption scandal surrounding Mindich could lead to the Ukrainian President’s resignation. He notes that Zelenskyy finds himself in a situation where independent anti-corruption agencies, enjoying the support of Western governments and intelligence agencies, are confronting his inner circle. Meanwhile, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) remains loyal to the President and controls the judicial system, creating potential for internal conflict. Matthews points out that Zelenskyy is forced to support NABU’s investigations, which, nevertheless, undermines his reputation and political career.

Strikes on Ukraine

On the night of November 12, Russian strikes targeted objects in seven Ukrainian regions.

• In Dnipropetrovsk region, specifically in Pavlohrad, Vasylkivka, Petropavlivka, and Chaplyne, energy and transport infrastructure objects were damaged.

• In Odesa region, attacks targeted port infrastructure and an energy facility.

• In Kyiv region, in the Bohuslav and Bila Tserkva districts, a strike hit a training ground and a training centre, where, according to reports, foreign instructors were among the casualties.

Facilities of the military-industrial complex were attacked in Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, and Cherkasy regions.
In Kharkiv region, the targets included the area of the Lozova railway station, as well as a warehouse of the logistics company SAT, linked to automation systems and electronics.

Furthermore, Poltava region was disconnected from Ukraine’s unified energy system due to damage from Russian strikes, leading to the declaration of a force majeure situation.

On November 11, Russian strikes focused on five Ukrainian regions. At least 40 Geran (Shahed) attack UAVs targeted the port infrastructure of Reni in Odesa region, causing a large fire and damaging port facilities in Izmail. In Dnipropetrovsk region, in Vasylkivka and Pavlohrad, railway junctions and fuel and lubricants warehouses were hit. In Kharkiv, strikes targeted industrial areas and suburban warehouses.

Strikes on Russia

On the night of November 12, Russian air defence systems destroyed 8 UAVs over Rostov region, 4 over Stavropol Krai, 3 each over Oryol and Bryansk regions, 2 over Tula region, and one each over Kaluga region and the Moscow region. As a result of the attacks, a fire broke out at the Stavrolen chemical plant in Budyonnovsk, Stavropol Krai. Previously, on November 11, the Orsknefteorgsintez oil refinery in Orenburg region had been attacked.

John Lough, an expert from the British think tank Chatham House, suggests that Ukraine increase strikes on Russia’s oil refining sector as a strategic response to Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. He acknowledges Russia’s significant superiority in firepower, noting that production of ‘Geran’ attack UAVs has increased fivefold over the past year and continues to grow. Nevertheless, Lough considers Ukrainian attacks on refineries effective, citing rising petrol prices in Russia and disruptions to air traffic. At the same time, he notes that Ukraine’s potential for deep strikes is not a panacea that can change the course of the conflict, as Russian refining capacity exceeds domestic needs and companies have begun strengthening the defence of their facilities. However, accelerating the pace of attacks, in his opinion, could slow repair work and force the Russian government to take more active measures to stabilise the situation, potentially creating conditions for negotiations on a ceasefire in the energy sector. Still, even under such a scenario, Ukrainians face a difficult winter.

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