The Drone Threat Is Rising. New Formations For Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces

Support SouthFront

Click to see the full-size image

Considerable resources have been invested in expanding the Ukrainian army’s unmanned capabilities. What effect will this have on the pace of the Russian offensive? Is this the creation of a new main branch of the armed forces?

On 6 February 2024, the Ukrainian military announced the formation of a new branch of the armed forces: the Unmanned Systems Forces (USF). This separate structure is designed to ensure the comprehensive development and use of various types of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), both on the front line and deep inside Russian territory. Around the same time, large-scale raids on Russian infrastructure began. Previously, only minor strikes had been carried out along the border. Since then, Ukraine has been striving to achieve parity in terms of long-range drones, but thus far it has not managed to develop or produce a viable alternative to the Russian Geran-2 in sufficient quantities.

Currently, a number of issues are preventing the USF from operating at the required level of effectiveness. Most of the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s UAV units remain under the operational control of their higher headquarters. Furthermore, it is impossible to manage the actions of small units, such as drone crews, comprehensively. This creates a parallel chain of command between ‘ground’ and ‘unmanned’ commanders, resulting in overall effectiveness remaining mediocre.

Click to see the full-size image

In September this year, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrsky announced the creation of an Air Defence Unmanned Systems Command within the Security Service of Ukraine. This new command is designed to combat the daily barrage of attacks by Geran-2 drones. Meanwhile, the number of kamikaze drones targeting locations in Ukraine continues to increase. It will probably take Kyiv another six months or more to implement the system.

Click to see the full-size image

Despite attempts to establish an effective new branch of the armed forces, Russia has advanced slightly faster over the past year. It has also not been possible to inflict significant enough damage to force Russia to negotiate.

Kiev is once again attempting to establish the Unmanned Systems Forces as a significant military threat to the Russian army. New units are being deployed and the most effective ones are being promoted. The 20th and 412th UAV brigades are being formed. The 14th Separate Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Regiment, which specialises in deep strikes into Russia, is being transformed into the 1st Separate Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Forces Centre. The 414th Separate UAV Brigade, the ‘Madjar Birds’, is set to double in size with the addition of a deep-strike component. Meanwhile, the 20th Separate Regiment ‘K-2’, the 412th Separate Regiment ‘Nemesis’ and the 413th Separate Battalion ‘Raid’ are being reorganised into the 20th Separate Brigade, the 412th Separate Brigade and the 413th Separate Regiment, respectively.

Click to see the full-size image

All the reforms suggest that Kyiv intends to take action in two main areas.

Firstly, it intends to expand its ‘long arm’ units, meaning there will be more attacks on Russian infrastructure. The effectiveness of such strikes is largely for media consumption. Additionally, Moscow has recently taken serious steps to protect critical infrastructure, particularly oil refineries. Therefore, while there will certainly be some effect, especially in border areas, it is unlikely that Russia’s energy sector will be crippled.

Secondly, an additional contingent of firefighting teams is needed to prevent Russian advances on the front line. Unmanned systems must support the newly formed Assault Troops, which are similar to the SS assault troops of Hitler’s Germany in 1944–45. Some operate in the air and some on the ground. This suggests that there are insufficient forces to cover the entire front line, meaning that UAV brigades must be kept in reserve and deployed to reinforce the front line as required. The problem is that the Russians are advancing along the entire line of contact — faster in some places and slower in others. This means that breaches in the front line are becoming increasingly common. Even if Kyiv had five highly capable firefighting teams, they could not possibly extinguish a hundred fires at once.

Conclusion: In this conflict, UAVs have proven to be an incredibly effective means of destroying a wide variety of targets. The warring party that creates the most effective control system for these advanced weapons will become a significant military force for the next few years. Although Ukraine is ahead of Russia in centralising UAV calculations, the drone brigade has yet to demonstrate significant effectiveness and the front is moving westward. Moscow, on the other hand, has been highly successful in mass-producing long-range kamikaze drones (Geran-2), which have recently been entering Kyiv-controlled territory in numbers of over 500 at a time. Amid the constant destruction of defence enterprises, the Ukrainians cannot catch up with the Russians in the production of long-range drones. Therefore, while these reforms to the USF’s UAV units will alleviate the symptoms, they will not solve the underlying cause of the upcoming ‘difficult decisions’.

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

• “Exclusively Ukrainian Weapons”: Zelensky Demands West Speed Up Aid Amid Mutual Strikes
• China’s Red Eye Over Ukraine: What Are The Middle Kingdom’s Satellites Observing?
• From Lviv To The Front Line: Intensified Russian Strikes Target Ukraine’s Core

Support SouthFront