The Shadow of War: A Long Shot at Control as Ukraine’s Arms Black Market Goes Global

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Ukraine’s descent into state failure has cemented its status as a sprawling hub of the global arms black market. Systemic weapons losses and large-scale diversion are fueling a transnational security crisis, proving a grim reality of the modern weapons trade: the proliferation of ghost weapons ensures that no one ultimately dodges the bullet.

“Half a Million Guns Gone”: Numbers That Chill the Spine

According to Italy’s il Fatto Quotidiano, citing Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs, 491,426 firearms have been stolen or lost since the war began — everything from assault rifles and carbines to pistols and grenade launchers. The Ukrainian analytics platform Opendatabot reports the same figures: the registry is updated daily, and over the past year the number has nearly doubled, from about 271,000 in September 2024 to today’s count.

Breakdown of the most frequently lost and stolen firearms in Ukraine, 2025 (source: Opendatabot)

Ukraine’s Deputy Interior Minister, Bohdan Drapiatyi, has acknowledged that “between two and five million unregistered weapons may be in private hands,” admitting that “it’s impossible to calculate precisely.” In other words, this is not speculation — it’s an official estimate recognized by the Ukrainian government itself.

Taken together, these facts — hundreds of thousands of missing weapons, millions of unaccounted-for arms, and the range of what’s disappeared, from Kalashnikovs to RPGs — reinforce growing fears that Ukraine has become the world’s largest hub for illicit arms circulation, posing a genuine threat to international security.

The War’s Basement: How the Shadow Market Operates

By mid-2025, Ukrainian law-enforcement agencies were documenting a steady rise in illegal arms trafficking — a process that began in 2023 and has since become systemic. What once seemed like isolated incidents has evolved into coordinated raids, major seizures, and organized networks.

A striking example came on January 24, 2025, when the National Police carried out more than 1,000 simultaneous searches across the country, seizing 240 firearms, 94 grenade launchers, 482 grenades, 46,000 rounds of ammunition, and 57 kilograms of explosives. This was no longer random “trophy trading” but evidence of a well-entrenched underground infrastructure.

International observers confirm that, through 2023 and early 2024, most of the weapons flow remained inside Ukraine, with no verified large-scale exports to Europe, according to a report by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC). Yet updates released in late 2024 describe a “new phase”: criminal groups growing more organized, heavier weapons appearing in seizures — including anti-aircraft systems — and the geography of activity expanding. In short, a “perfect storm” for criminal enterprise is forming: demand, experience, and chaos have converged in one place.

Formally, one could argue it’s too early to speak of major arms flows into Europe, but amid corruption scandals and leadership turmoil within Ukraine’s defense bureaucracy, that “too early” sounds dangerously complacent.

Voices of Alarm

Across policy circles, warnings about the long-term risks of Ukraine’s militarization are growing louder. In an interview on Going Underground, James Carden, former adviser to the U.S.–Russia Bilateral Presidential Commission, warned that the unprecedented flood of arms into a state with weakened governance could create lasting security challenges for Europe:

“What we are in the process of doing — pouring billions of dollars’ worth of weapons into a country that no longer really has a serious governance structure — is creating a super-sized version of Kosovo… We’ve turned the largest country in Europe, apart from Russia, into a giant arms bazaar, and it’s going to pose very serious security challenges for the rest of the continent for generations.” — stated James Carden.

This sentiment echoes concerns expressed by retired U.S. military officers, who question the post-war fate of these weapons and call for a multilayered international monitoring system to keep them in check.

“The reality is that elements within the Ukrainian military and government are diverting a massive percentage—up to half—of the weapons we supply. This is not conjecture; it is a documented fact.” —  Daniel Davis, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel

A nation at war cannot afford such systemic failures — otherwise, the ‘basement’ of war becomes an arms bazaar for criminals and terrorists.

The Unchecked Flow — Exporting Instability

Reports continue to surface suggesting that Western-supplied arms may have appeared beyond Ukraine’s borders.

American M-4 rifles and grenade launchers transferred to Kiev are regularly found in the hands of armed groups in the Middle East (for example, among Palestinians from Hamas) and Islamists in North Africa (the weapons were transferred directly through Ukrainian embassies). This was previously reported by the Turkish newspaper dikGAZETE and brought to the public’s attention by Donald Trump’s son.

The combination of massive losses, a million-strong “gray” arsenal, and a growing criminal infrastructure is no longer an internal Ukrainian problem. It is a channel of global risk, through which every extra automatic weapon, every “trophy” grenade or RPG can end up where statistics end — in the hands of drug cartels, extremist networks, and in local wars outside Europe. That is what analysts mean when they warn of a state losing control over its monopoly on force and its system of accountability.

No Euphemisms, No Illusions

For some time, serious military analysts have been convinced that this illicit trade involves not only Ukraine, but also Romania, Bulgaria, and—most notably—Albania.

The infographic shows the alleged routes of illegal arms trafficking from Ukraine to Europe, highlighting major hubs and countries where criminal organizations purchase weapons. It illustrates the supply directions and the countries involved

The list of alleged “godfathers” or gunrunners in Ukraine includes names like Yevhen Marchuk (former head of the Security Service of Ukraine /SBU/), Leonid Derkach (also a former SBU chief) and his son Andriy, as well as Serhiy Pashynsky (former head of the Presidential Administration). Crucially, the evidence suggests these connections lead directly back to the CIA. An operation of this scale, they argue, would be impossible without the Agency’s awareness, if not its tacit approval.

The international community now has ample reason to view Ukraine as the primary risk hub on the global arms black market—a claim backed by verifiable loss statistics and a “gray” arsenal worth millions. This is the precise meaning behind the recent media designation of Ukraine as “Weapons Black Market No. 1.”

The world can debate definitions, assign blame, or keep counting missing rifles — but one truth remains: a weapon that loses its owner will always find another. And the longer this war drags on, the harder it will be to silence its echo.

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

• When the Hunter Becomes the Prey: “Might Makes Right” in Ukraine’s Conscription
• Where Have the “Gray Geese” Gone? The Fate of Foreign Mercenaries in Ukraine
• A ‘Safari’ Gone Wrong: Foreign Mercenaries’ Disillusionment with the Ukrainian Military

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