
A Tomahawk cruise missile fired from an Australian warship, moments before impacting its target. (U.S. Navy)
United States President Donald Trump said on November 2 that, for now, he is not considering a deal that would allow Ukraine to obtain BGM-109 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAM) for use against Russia.
“No, not really,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, when asked whether he was considering a deal to sell the missiles. He added, however, that he could change his mind.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy requested the Tomahawk earlier this year. Russia warned against any provision of the nuclear-capable missile which has a range covering Moscow.
Trump’s remarks came just two days after CNN reported, citing U.S. and European officials, that the Pentagon had given the White House the green light to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles after assessing that it would not negatively impact the stockpiles of the U.S. military.
Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte discussed the proposal to provide Ukraine with the Tomahawk when they met at the White House on October 22.
Rutte said on the day CNN published its report that the issue was under review and that it was up to the U.S. to decide in the end.
The Tomahawk was developed all the way back in the 1970s. The subsonic cruise missile is guided via a GPS-aided Inertial navigation system, in addition to a terrain contour matching system that allows it to fly at an altitude as low as 30 meters.
While most Western media reports discussing the possible delivery of Tomahawk to Ukraine allege that the missile has a range of 2,500 kilometers, that is in fact the range of the Block II TLAM-N (Nuclear) version with the W80 nuclear warhead. Kiev won’t be getting that version for sure.
The latest conventional-armed versions of the missile, the Block III TLAM-C (Conventional), has a range of 1,700 kilometers. This version is typically armed with the WDU-36/B warhead weighing 310 kg.
As for how Ukraine could launch the missile that was mainly designed for the shipborne Mark 41 vertical launching system, there are two options: the Typhon missile system, commonly referred to as the “Strategic Mid-range Fires System,” which is basically a towed launcher that contains four strike-length cells from the Mark 41 mounted in the footprint of a standard 12 shipping container; or the Extreme Multi-Mission Autonomous Vehicle, more known by its acronym “X-MAV,” which was unveiled by Oshkosh in October and can carry up to four missiles in especially-designed incline launch cells.
The Tomahawk is a very capable weapon system, but supplying Ukraine with the missile wont tip the balance of power in its favor.
The Russian military is already very familiar with the Tomahawk. In fact, it recovered a nearly intact one following the 2018 U.S. strikes on Syria, which saw the interception of dozens of other such missiles by the country’s Soviet and Russian-made air defenses.
The country’’s air defenses have also shown a high ability to adapt to new threats. This was very clear with the Franco-British-made Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missile and the American-made MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System, more known by its acronym “ATACMS,” which were both rendered ineffective within a few months of them being supplied to Kiev.
The supply of the nuclear-capable also poses serious risks, as there is no way for Russia to recognize the difference between TLAM-C and TLAM-N.
Trump’s decision not to supply the missile to Ukraine is likely based on these facts. He knows that the missile won’t make any difference, but could cause a serious escalation. Rutte’s latest remarks also indicate that the rest of NATO is not as enthusiastic as before about the idea of arming Ukraine with the missile.
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