U.S. Is Sending Thousands Of Marines To Middle East And Their Target May Be Lebanon, Not Iran

The United States is deploying a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) to the Middle East as the war with Iran heats up. Multiple recent reports indicate that the U.S. and Israel may be planning ground operations in Iran, possibly to seize enriched uranium, to capture a key island, or to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, it is more likely that the marine unit will end up landing in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, as a part of a wider Israeli invasion.

Surprise Deployment

The deployment of the the 31st MEU — permanently based in Japan — to the Middle East on three navy ships, was reported by ABC News on March 13.

Officials from the administration of President Donald Trump had long ruled out the idea of sending ground troops to the region, but have largely avoided ruling out the possibility since the outbreak of the American-Israeli war on Iran last month.

The deployment of the marines doesn’t necessarily mean that the troops will be deployed on the ground in the Islamic Republic, as they can also provide land, amphibious and aviation assets to military commanders in need, ABC News noted in its report.

Illustrative image. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Peter Burghart)

The Wall Street Journal and Axios both confirmed the deployment, revealing that the USS Tripoli, an America-class amphibious assault ship, will be in the lead of the MEU.

The large ship can act as a carrier for several types of warplanes, including F-35B Lightning II stealth fighter jets, AH-1Z Viper attack helicopters, and MV-22B Osprey tilt rotor aircraft.

Threat to Iran

There have been some indications that the U.S. and Israel are at least preparing to conduct limited ground operations in Iran.

A report by Axios revealed that the two countries had discussed sending special forces into the Islamic Republic to secure its stockpile of highly enriched uranium at a later stage of the war.

However, Keith Kellogg, the U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine, said recently that the U.S. and Israel should seize a strategically important island in Iran that controls a majority of the country’s oil exports. Kellogg explained during an interview on Fox News that if Kharg Island, located in the Northern Persian Gulf, is taken, “that’s 89% of petroleum usage that the Iranians have.”

Click to see full-size image. (Google Earth)

In addition, there have been many reports about a plan to directly back an offensive by Iranian Kurdish opposition armed factions in the west of the Islamic Republic.

More recently as Iran tightened its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, some analysts suggested that the only way for the U.S. to open the waterway is by occupying the nearby Iranian coast.

The 31st MEU will not for sure take part in any special operation to seize uranium from the heart of Iran. It could, however, attempt to capture Kharg, land on the coast facing the Strait of Hormuz, or even train Kurdish fighters in countries neighboring Iran.

That’s being said, all of these scenarios are extremely risky, and certainly demands way more troops than just 2,200 marines.

Destination Lebanon

The main target of the 31st MEU deployment is not likely Iran, but rather Lebanon, where Israel is preparing to escalate operations against Hezbollah.

The group resumed attacks against Israel right after the start of the war on Iran, ending a ceasefire in Lebanon that was brokered by the U.S. more than 15 months ago.

Last week, the Israeli military called on Lebanese civilians in southern Lebanon to evacuate to the north of the Litani River. It also demanded the complete evacuation of the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital, Beirut, a stronghold of Hezbollah.

The military escalated again earlier this week, expanding its evacuation warning of southern Lebanon, telling all civilians south of the Zahrani River that they should evacuate their homes immediately. These warnings displaced close to a million people, and sparked fear of a possible full-on invasion.

Click to see full-size image. (Israeli Defense Forces)

As the reports of the U.S. marines deployment came out, the Israeli military announced in a statement that it was further bolstering troops along the front with Lebanon “as part of strengthening readiness for various offensive and defensive scenarios.”

The deployment will include forces from the standing army, including the elite 98th Paratroopers Division with two brigade-level combat teams and combat engineering battalions.

The Israeli military is clearly preparing to invade southern Lebanon, all the way up to Litani, or even Zahrani. Ground operations in the southern suburbs of Beirut, also known as Dahiyah, are, however, out of question for the military.

Advancing towards the Lebanese capital could be extremely risky for Israel, not just for military reasons, but also politically.

Deploying in Beirut may be exactly the reason the U.S. is sending the 31st MEU to the Middle East. Washington could pressure the Lebanese government, which has already committed to disarming Hezbollah, into requesting such a deployment. The plan may be for the marines to take over the now abandoned Dahiyah and dismantle the group’s military infrastructure there.

Bad Memories

The U.S. has already landed marines three times in Beirut, one in 1958 to calm down a political crisis in Lebanon, and twice in 1982 — first to oversee the withdrawal of the Palestine Liberation Organization, and the second in response to a massacre that targeted a camp with Palestinians and Lebanese in Dahiyah.

Washington paid dearly for intervening in Lebanon, however, with more than 240 service members killed in a single bombing at marines headquarters in Beirut in 1983. Ironically, the bombing was orchestrated by the Islamic Jihad Organization, which later evolved to become Hezbollah.

Click to see full-size image. (U.S. Marine Corps)

The U.S. military even clashed more than once with Syria, whose military was at the time deployed in vast parts of Lebanon, losing more service members and even several warplanes.

Conclusion

The 31st MEU is a highly capable unit, but it is far from what is needed to conduct any ground operations in Iran. Thus, it is more likely that the unit will end aiding an Israeli invasion of Lebanon, by landing in Beirut.

In no case such a move would presented as a full-on American-Israeli invasion. Israel will likely promote its advance in southern Lebanon as a military operation meant to establish a “safe zone”. Meanwhile, the U.S. will say it is sending the marines to Beirut to aid the Lebanese military in disarming Hezbollah in Dahiyah.

This will likely be more risky than what both the U.S. and Israel think, however. Hezbollah is guaranteed to fight with full force both in southern Lebanon and in Beirut.

If the group can no longer hold back Israeli advance in the south, it will likely switch tactics and wage an insurgency, similar to what it did in the 1990s. By 2000, the group had succeeded in expelling the Israeli military. Meanwhile in Beirut, the group will not likely resistance the marines heads on, but it could orchestrate attacks against them.

Adding to the complexity of the situation is the fact that such a blatant military move will likely push other sides, namely the Palestinians and Lebanese Islamists, to back Hezbollah.

All in all, the U.S. and Israel may be about to turn the clock back in Lebanon to the 1980s and 1990s. The results will not likely be very different.

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