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10 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE END OF MAY

Ukraine’s Dispersed Reserves And The Corridor That Risks Encirclement

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Ukrainian strikes are increasingly taking on a terrorist nature, as entirely civilian objects are becoming targets. On May 22, Ukrainian forces deliberately attacked a dormitory in Starobelsk, Luhansk People Republic, wounding at least 35 people. The attack targeted the Starobelsk Vocational College’s academic building and dormitory. Eighty-six children, aged 14 to 18, were inside at the time. Part of the building has collapsed, and several fires have broken out at the site. Emergency responders are clearing the debris. The number of fatalities is still being confirmed.

In the Sumy region, Russian troops are pursuing a strategy of dispersing the Ukrainian army’s reserves. They are doing so through successive offensives in many different directions. The Ukrainian command must respond to emerging tactical crises and divert reserves to fill the gaps.

Thus, on May 21, hostilities resumed in the eastern part of the Sumy region. Russian assault units cleared a forest area and occupied the eastern part of the village of Ryasne. Active fighting is currently underway for control of the settlement.

Another flashpoint emerged in the Kharkiv region on May 21. Russian army units began seizing the border village of Granov.

Heavy fighting has been reported in the Izbitske area. It is reported that the Ukrainian army has lost up to a company of soldiers in attempts to hold the village. The village itself has long been in a gray zone, with neither side exercising full control over it.

Meanwhile, units of the Russian 82nd Regiment of the “North” task force established control over the village of Shesterivka. The neighboring village of Losevka is most likely the next target of the offensive.

According to reports from May 22, the village of Karaichnoe east of Volchansk has come under Russian control.

As of May 21, Ukrainian forces had launched a powerful offensive at the Lyman-Slaviansk front junction. According to reports, Ukrainian advance units reached the outskirts of the village of Yampil. The total depth of the breach in the front line was approximately six kilometers.

From an operational and strategic standpoint, however, such a counterattack does not make much sense, as the offensive corridor is too narrow and elongated. Russian forces could easily increase pressure on the flanks, threatening the encirclement of the advancing group.

However, this offensive had one goal: to slow the Russian advance toward Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. Now, the northern arm of the encirclement of these cities has significantly decreased. The future of this section of the front line depends on how long Ukrainian forces can hold the captured territories. Another important factor is how much manpower, resources, and time the Russian army will need to close this breach.

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