A new area of tension has recently emerged in northern Ukraine. It refers to the entire border region with Belarus. On May 22, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned of a potential attack from Belarus. ‘The threat is not just to Kyiv and Chernihiv, but also to the Volyn, Zhytomyr, and Rivne regions,’ he said in an evening address from Rivne. Zelenskyy even threatened a preemptive strike against Belarus. ‘If there is a threat from Belarusian or Russian border regions, Ukraine is prepared to act preemptively,’ he said.
These statements are not empty rhetoric or political PR. According to reports, the Ukrainian leadership has already begun rapidly fortifying the terrain in border areas for defensive operations. Madyar, commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Unmanned Systems Forces, said that Ukraine has identified the first 500 targets in Belarus that will be struck if Lukashenko decides to go to war on Russia’s side. Preparations are also underway to evacuate some populated areas.
Ukrainian troops are using drones to scout targets in Belarus. On May 26, Alexander Volfovich, Secretary of the country’s Security Council, reported this. ‘Every day, our air defense systems detect combat drones crossing the border between Belarus and Ukraine. In some cases, these are not accidental attacks, but rather, attempts to strike border infrastructure. There were 116 such incidents in the last week alone. Forces on duty responded to them 59 times,’ Volfovich stated. He also addressed the issue of Ukrainians illegally crossing the border to flee forced mobilization. ‘Over the past month, 76 violators have been detained. Some of them are spies with specific missions.’
Overall, an armed conflict with Minsk would be advantageous for Kyiv. The Belarusian army lacks combat experience and advanced technology for producing and using unmanned systems of all types. Consequently, holding onto the territories under its control will not require diverting too many forces and resources from the main theaters of the Ukrainian conflict. At the same time, Volodymyr Zelenskyy will have a compelling reason to demand new financial assistance and large quantities of arms from his Western allies.
Meanwhile, the situation for Russian forces in southern Ukraine risks deteriorating sharply. Ukrainian forces have increased the range of their guided drones significantly, in some cases extending it up to 100 km. Near Berdyansk, at roughly this distance, a rear supply convoy was destroyed. Similar strikes have increased sharply across the entire former Ukrainian territory. At the same time, the strikes have focused on supply tankers and trucks. By fall, this will lead to the complete paralysis of logistics from the Kharkiv region to Crimea, which will make continuing hostilities impossible.
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