Ukraine’s Cyber Front: Can Digital Defense Halt a Conventional Advance?

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This is a new, advanced branch of the Ukrainian army. Kyiv intends to launch an offensive against Russian infrastructure. What are Zelensky’s realistic chances of implementing his plans?

War has long been waged on land, at sea and in the air. Now, invisible battles are being fought on the fields of the World Wide Web. The concept adhered to by the world’s leading powers is simple: it is pointless to bomb a target factory for months on end, wasting energy, time and, most importantly, expensive ammunition. It is possible to paralyse the desired target with the help of hackers via the internet, completely depriving it of its ability to function.

In recent months, there have been large-scale disruptions at major European airports, such as Heathrow in the UK, Berlin-Brandenburg in Germany, and Zaventem in Belgium. These flight delays and cancellations have cost the European Union millions of dollars. The European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA) confirmed that these disruptions were caused by a cyberattack.

There were widespread power outages across Europe in April this year. Power cuts and subsequent internet issues were reported in Lisbon, the Algarve region and Coimbra in Portugal. Similar issues were reported in Madrid and Barcelona in Spain, as well as in Burgundy in France. The power outages also affected the Netherlands and Belgium. A massive and targeted cyberattack is the most likely cause of all these incidents.

In addition to hacking the enemy’s online infrastructure, another equally important battle is being waged: the battle for hearts and minds. Hundreds of thousands of news outlets and information portals promote a particular agenda. A striking example of this is the information campaign aimed at discrediting Russia in connection with the events in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the utterly inhumane destruction of the Gaza Strip and its tens of thousands of civilians by the Israeli army is not widely reported.

Kyiv is striving to be trendy

On 9 October, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine passed a bill to establish a cyber force within the national army. The force’s primary responsibilities will include developing and implementing cyber deterrence capabilities, gaining a military advantage over the enemy and reducing its capabilities by conducting operations in the electromagnetic spectrum and cyberspace.

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The document states that cyber forces will collaborate with other military and government agencies on cybersecurity matters.

The plan is to establish a military and technical organisational structure based on US and NATO standards. This structure will be responsible for Ukraine’s cyber defence, as well as for protecting its sovereignty and territorial integrity in cyberspace.

Kyiv cannot do without its Western allies. Only the United States and China have the resources to create a system as complex as cyber forces. In other countries, these structures are either still being formed or are not on such a large scale.

Also, the Ukrainian army will have to move its cyber army to other countries, like Poland and the Baltic states. This will put them out of reach of Russian missiles and drones. Ukraine’s air defence systems are unable to protect critical infrastructure, as evidenced by the recent large-scale destruction of power stations in Kyiv and along the Dnieper River.

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Zelensky is pinning his hopes on the cyber forces’ ability to seriously undermine the Russian economy and military industry. The law on cyber forces was only recently passed by the Verkhovna Rada. This means it will take at least six months to implement. Only time will tell how far Russian troops will be able to advance during this period.

It is also possible that the numerous fraudulent call centres throughout Ukraine will be subordinated to the newly created forces. These centres generate significant revenue for the country’s budget, financing the army and replenishing the personal accounts of Ukrainian officials.

Over the course of the three-year conflict, neither the US nor NATO has managed to inflict significant damage on Russian enterprises and infrastructure through cyberattacks. Whether Kyiv will succeed in doing so, even with the support of its Western allies, remains to be seen. In the context of an escalating crisis on the front lines and ongoing retreat, this reform could cause more harm than good. Significant funding would be required to create a new type of military unit, which could instead be used to support units that have been exhausted by three years of war.

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

• US-China Trade War Hits Ukrainian Special Services Hard
• Reforming The Ukrainian Armed Forces: Why Is It Necessary, And Will It Lead To Victory?
• Testing The Red Lines: Western Escalation And The Calculus Of Direct Confrontation With Russia

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