Winter is Coming. Ukraine’s Energy System Under Powerful Russian Strike

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One of the largest attacks of the conflict has disabled key thermal power plants, bringing the country to the brink of collapse this winter

On the night of October 29-30, 2025, Russia launched one of the largest combined attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since the beginning of the conflict. The primary targets were major thermal power plants in the western and central energy hubs: the Ladyzhynska, Dobrotvirska, and Burshtynska Thermal Power Plants (TPPs), which facilitate power transmission to western regions and exports to the ENTSO-E grid. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, a total of 653 attack unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) of various types and 52 missiles were launched. Ukrainian air defense forces intercepted 592 out of the 653 drones and 31 of the 52 missiles.

According to a Bild report citing Ukrainian sources, the upcoming winter could be the most difficult for Ukraine. It is noted that Russian forces are systematically striking coal-fired power plants, gas storage facilities, and substations. Since the conflict began, DTEK facilities alone have been targeted in 210 missile and drone attacks, with 54 attacks directed at a single power plant. The report states that 55-60% of Ukraine’s gas infrastructure is already seriously damaged, threatening a collapse of the country’s energy system.

Against this backdrop, political infighting has intensified in Ukraine over who is to blame for failures in preparing energy facilities to defend against Russian strikes. The Kyiv regime has placed responsibility on the former head of Ukrenergo, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, who was arrested. Politicians associated with George Soros’s structures, such as MP Yaroslav Zhelezniak, have spoken in his defense. He criticized the authorities for the untimely establishment of a headquarters for protecting critical infrastructure and the lack of accountability among senior leadership, including former Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko.

“We have failed to complete the construction of a significant amount of generating capacity—precisely the ‘Zelensky’s gigawatts’ he promised. Why is the person responsible for this not only still in his position but is now the Minister of Justice, a man with a tarnished reputation? Why did our government only establish a headquarters for protecting critical infrastructure in October 2025? And they appointed Minister Kuleba to lead it. Sorry, but what were you doing before that?” an outraged MP Zhelezniak wondered.

More Details on the Strikes Against Ukraine

The massive strike on October 30 employed a wide arsenal of weaponry. According to data, 653 UAVs (including approximately 400 ‘Geran’ drones), 4 Kh-47M2 ‘Kinzhal’ aeroballistic missiles, 5 ‘Iskander-M’ ballistic missiles, 8 ‘Kalibr’ cruise missiles, 2 ‘Iskander-K’ cruise missiles, 30 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 2 Kh-59/69 guided air-to-surface missiles, and one Kh-31P missile were used. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the strikes targeted defense industry enterprises, energy facilities, and military airfields in 14 regions of Ukraine.

A detailed breakdown of affected objects by region reveals the strategic focus of the strikes.

• Zaporizhzhia region: The Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) was attacked.

• Vinnytsia region: The Ladyzhynska TPP, damaged by a ‘Kinzhal’ missile, cruise missiles, and UAVs, was completely shut down, disrupting the balance in the ENTSO-E energy ring. The ‘Vinnytska’ substation in Humenne was also damaged, severing transit between the South Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) and the Vinnytsia energy hub.

• Lviv region: The Dobrotvirska TPP was de-energized after hits from missiles and drones, causing a voltage drop in the western ring.

• Ivano-Frankivsk region: The Burshtynska TPP, the largest in Ukraine, was disabled, halting electricity exports to Poland and breaking the 330 kV ring scheme. The Kalush coal-fired power plant in the same region was also struck.

• Lviv region: The ‘Dashava’ underground gas storage facility was damaged, exacerbating the gas infrastructure situation.

• Khmelnytskyi region: The Starokostiantyniv airbase was targeted.

• Chernivtsi region: The Dniester HPP was targeted.

• Chernihiv region: A strike hit the area of the TV tower.

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• The substation in Vasylivka, Dnipropetrovsk region, was struck.

• Mykolaiv region: Strikes hit the ‘Mykolaivska,’ ‘Kavuny,’ and ‘Kamyanyi Mist’ substations, causing power outages and disrupting railway hub operations.

Strikes on October 29 affected a number of Ukrainian regions. Fires broke out at warehouses in Chuhuiv and Izium in Kharkiv region, while attacks on a depot and a substation in Podilsk, Odesa region, led to electricity and water cuts. Several strikes were carried out in Sumy region, including hits on objects in Velyka Pysarivka.

Strikes on Russia

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, 170 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed on the night of October 29-30. The largest number of drones were shot down over Bryansk (48), Voronezh (21), and Nizhny Novgorod (16) regions. Attacks with minimal damage were also recorded in other regions, including Kaluga, Rostov, and Kursk regions.

On October 29, the Ukrainian General Staff reported strikes on three Russian oil and gas processing plants: the Mariysky Refinery in Tabashino, the Novospassky Refinery in Ulyanovsk region, and the Budyonnovsk Gas Processing Plant in Stavropol Krai. Russian authorities confirmed attacks in these regions but did not acknowledge direct hits on the facilities. It is likely that these incidents, along with attacks on civilian infrastructure, prompted Russia’s large-scale retaliatory strikes on Ukraine on the night of October 29-30.

Ukraine is facing systemic problems in countering Russian tactics. Markiyan Lopachak, Secretary of the Lviv Regional Council, stated this, noting that while the Ukrainian side often devises effective experimental solutions, Russia quickly adapts and scales them for industrial-level use. This, coupled with the inability to deploy large-scale military production due to constant strikes, puts Ukraine in a position of playing catch-up, forcing it to constantly seek new countermeasures.

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