Russia is advancing on multiple fronts simultaneously — and in at least one sector, dysfunction within the Ukrainian command structure is accelerating the collapse as much as the Russian pressure itself.
In the Sumy Region, assault units of the Russian ‘North’ grouping seized the village of Ulanove in the north of the region on September 28, with active fighting ongoing near Kyianytsia and Khoten. Ukrainian forces in the area have not conducted any active operations over the past 24 hours, focusing instead on reinforcing defensive positions on the approaches to Sumy itself. That activity may not be entirely voluntary. According to available sources, Brigadier General Voloshyn, commander of the 8th Army Corps of Air Assault Forces, refused to comply with an order from Commander-in-Chief Drapatyi to travel from Kyiv to his forward command post in the Sumy Region. He stayed in the capital under various pretexts while engaging in efforts to secure a senior appointment in the new command structure which Drapatyi subsequently blocked.
The dysfunction in Sumy is compounding a crisis that has been building for weeks in the eastern Kharkiv Region, where Russian forces are methodically dismantling the encircled Ukrainian grouping.
On September 29, assault groups of Russia’s 34th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, supported by units of the 344th Regiment, drove Ukrainian border guards of the 1st Border Detachment out of the village of Kreidyanka. The encircled force has now been effectively split into two pockets — a larger western fragment and a smaller eastern one. The eastern pocket has contracted into the village of Rublene and its immediate surroundings. Russian command is expected to concentrate on eliminating it first, then redirect forces to fracture the larger western pocket — most likely near Reznikove, where a north-south oriented strip of Ukrainian-held territory offers a logical point of division. The sequencing is deliberate: eliminate the smaller problem, then bring full weight to bear on the larger one.
On the northern flank of the Dobropillia sector, Russian forces seized Novovodiane on September 28 after intense fighting. The capture created a significant pocket — up to five kilometers wide — between Novovodiane and the village of Zolotyi Kolodyaz to the east. Ukrainian units remaining inside that pocket are now in tactical semi-encirclement, facing a narrow bottleneck as their only exit. Experience across this conflict has shown consistently that such corridors offer the illusion of escape rather than its reality — breakout attempts through them typically result in heavy casualties with minimal success.
Ukrainian command is simultaneously losing ground, losing cohesion, and losing the initiative across three separate sectors. That combination does not produce recoverable situations. It produces collapses.
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